Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts Act
The Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts Act would create an Atmospheric River Forecast Improvement Program within the NOAA leadership (the Under Secretary) to strengthen how the United States forecasts atmospheric rivers (ARs) – long, moisture-rich air streams that can bring extreme rain, snow, and flooding. The bill directs collaboration with the weather enterprise and colleges/universities to expand forecast accuracy, lead time, and the usefulness of forecasts and warnings. Key aims include developing a unified, advanced forecasting system capable of short- to seasonal-range predictions (including snow and hydrology), establishing quantitative forecast skill metrics, and improving how forecasts are communicated to the public and decision-makers. The measure also emphasizes moving research into operations, integrating social science and economics, and enhancing observational capabilities and data management. Additionally, the bill would mandate a robust AR reconnaissance program using crewed and uncrewed aircraft to support AR observations during typical AR seasons, ensure data accessibility for research and operations, and maintain at least one dedicated West Coast AR observatory to cover the region comprehensively (including Alaska). It calls for stronger hazard communication practices, a plan within 270 days detailing research, data needs, partnerships, and timelines, and alignment with federal data governance standards (CARE/FAIR) and the Federal Records Act. In short, the bill seeks to modernize AR science and operations to better protect lives, property, and water resources.
Key Points
- 1establishment of an Atmospheric River Forecast Improvement Program within NOAA, led by the Under Secretary, in partnership with universities and the broader weather enterprise; focus on reducing loss of life, property damage, and economic impacts from ARs
- 2development of quantitative forecast skill metrics and a unified, next-generation forecast system that provides seasonal to short-range AR predictions, including snow and hydrologic components; emphasis on probabilistic forecasts and landfall/inland penetration
- 3support for enhanced research-to-operations transfer, testbeds, and the inclusion of social science, risk, communication, and economics to improve how forecasts and warnings are created and used
- 4expansion of innovative observations and data assimilation (radar, aircraft, satellites, buoys, soil moisture, reservoirs, mesonets, etc.) and improvement of modeling (high-resolution AR analyses, AI/ML techniques, and better ocean–atmosphere data integration)
- 5AR reconnaissance mandate requiring annual funding and use of crewed/uncrewed aircraft from November 1 to March 31, data sharing, data management under CARE/FAIR and Federal Records Act, and establishment/maintenance of an AR observatory along the West Coast (including Alaska)